Investors believe that copper will be the most valuable asset in 2024, followed by gold; at BMO's

After the 33rd annual Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference, held by the Canadian Bank, surveys of attendees revealed that copper was the metal with the most potential for 2024.

“While most investors concur that supply-side concerns have altered underlying market expectations for this year, we did detect some indications of investor fatigue in waiting for the copper price to rise in 2024. We believe that spending on global grid upgrades has significant potential benefits. It's interesting to note that concerns about whether the projected supply recovery in 2025 would be inadequate are already beginning to surface.” the analysts said.

Attendees were expressly asked by BMO what asset they would hold for the following five years. Results showed that 62% of respondents said they would hoard copper, a modest decrease from responses in 2023.

With 22% of respondents stating that gold was their preferred long-term asset, it was the second most popular asset.

Investor interest in gold is starting to grow; according to the bank, only 10% of respondents to a study conducted last year stated they would hold the precious metal for the long run.

Comparably unchanged from the previous year, only 13% of attendees stated they would hold lithium and 2% said they would store iron.

During this year's conference, BMO also observed an unexpected change in the market as investor interest in crucial and battery metals declined. This industry received special attention at the conference for the first time last year, and it was suggested that this contributed significantly to the record-breaking attendance.

 

“Given that previous year's discussions on lithium, nickel, and essential oils suggested that investor interest in 2024 was lower than it was in 2023 (and fewer OEMs attended),  were attended by standing rooms only. Though many argue we are not quite there yet, we would say investors are currently heading towards a price floor in underperforming battery materials.” the analysts said.

Investors are largely unbiased regarding the price of gold, despite the fact that they recognise its value. According to BMO, 50% of participants believe that gold prices will fluctuate between $1,950 and $2,150 an ounce; however, 32% of respondents were more optimistic, predicting a price range of $2,150 to $2,350.

 Remarkably, 11% of participants chose a gold price of more than $2,350 by year's end, indicating their expectation that prices will rise much higher this year. the analysts said.

Analysts at BMO stated that investors' perceptions of what is driving the gold market also caught them off guard. They observed that the US currency and interest rates were receiving a lot of attention, whereas central bank demand received very little of it.

We believe that the historical relationship between gold and real rates has been broken, and that the perspectives held by those in attendance at the event are rather out of date.,”stated the analysts. "We see developing market central banks' net purchases of gold as a quasi-annuity over the next ten years, with Chinese consumer demand serving as the main driver of the metal's price.”